Last Week Oil Market Data:
Crude Oil Price Movement: Oil prices were under pressure last week and closed the week 1.18% lower. Brent crude and WTI closed the week around $51.89/bbl and $49.25/bbl respectively.
Brent Crude Oil Price
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories: U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6Â million bbl to the week ending April 21. However, its positive impact on oil prices was eroded by the high build-up in U.S. gasoline inventories as it increased by 3.4 million bbl.
US Crude Inventories
Weekly U.S. Crude Oil Production:Â U.S. crude oil production increased by 13,000 bbl/day for the week ending April 21. US crude oil production is up by 327,000 bbl/day from the same time a year ago. The upward trend in US crude oil production is expected to continue this month and consequently putting pressure on oil prices.
Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil
U.S. Rig Count: Increased by 13 rigs to 870. U.S. rig count is up by 450 rigs from the same time a year ago. The number of rigs drilling for oil is up for the 15 consecutive weeks by 9 rigs last week. The increase in U.S. rig count is putting pressure on oil prices now, and that will keep oil prices around $50/bbl and below in the coming months.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
This Week Oil Price Forecast:
The overall outlook for oil prices this week does not look any different from the last two weeks. Looking at last week oil market data and news, oil prices are set to face another week of high pressure following two weeks of sustained pressure due to growing concerns over the continuous increase in U.S. crude oil output and rigs drilling for oil, build-up in U.S. gasoline inventories and doubts about OPEC production cut extension. These factors will continue to pressure oil prices down this week as it is expected that, U.S. crude oil production and rig count will increase this week as well. Adding to the negative sentiments, the reopening of the biggest oil field -Sharara oil field in Libya is also expected to put more pressure on oil prices this week.
And despite positive comments by few OPEC producers to assure the oil market that OPEC will extend its production cut for another 6 months, negative sentiments due to the increase in U.S. crude oil output and the current forecasts of a higher increase in U.S. crude output will probably limit the gains in oil prices.
Weekly Crude Oil Price Forecast, Oil Industry Insight
For this week, Brent crude and WTI are expected to continue trading around their current levels; $51.89/bbl and $49.25/bbl respectively. Brent crude could fall below $50/bbl this week especially if the EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude inventories. Prices will experience some pressure at the end of the week once the data about U.S. crude oil output and rig count are released which are expected to continue rising.
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Remark: The expectation of oil prices’ direction in this commentary are based on the oil market data and news up until the time of writing this commentary. As the week starts, new data and news are reported and could influence oil prices differently. Therefore, the direction of oil prices cloud be different from what was expected here. It is important to stay updated with oil market data and events as they occur.
